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Fiscal policy

Government taxation and spending choices that influence growth and inflation; key driver of bond yields, FX and risk assets.

Fiscal policy refers to government decisions regarding taxation, public spending, and borrowing, and is a key tool for influencing economic growth and inflation. In energy markets, fiscal policy can have a direct and indirect impact on demand, investment, and pricing. Large infrastructure spending programmes may increase demand for fuels, power, and raw materials, while austerity measures can suppress economic activity and energy consumption. Fiscal policy also affects energy markets through subsidies, taxes, and incentives related to fuel use, renewables, and emissions. Carbon taxes, fuel duties, and renewable subsidies all shape energy demand patterns and investment decisions. Additionally, fiscal policy influences government debt levels, bond yields, and currency values, which in turn affect commodity pricing and financing costs. Traders monitor fiscal developments to anticipate shifts in demand, regulatory risk, and macroeconomic conditions. In the context of the energy transition, fiscal policy plays an increasingly central role in directing capital toward low-carbon technologies and reshaping energy markets.

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