Long-term longing
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Latest energy market news from the Flux team
Hot markets
| Contract | Price | Change | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 380 E/W | 22.25 | -4.301 | -0.96 |
| Barges 0.5% | 387.54 | 1.262 | 4.89 |
| 0.1% FOB ARA Gasoil Diff | -25 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Spread | 0.69 | -11.539 | -0.08 |
| Brent | 64.09 | 0.897 | 0.58 |
Prices accurate within the last ten minutes. For live prices, see our Flux Terminal or Flux Markets MT5 Trader.
Long-term longing
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90-day Jan'26 EBOB crack longs are now out of the money based on Flux Insight's entry-level estimates. We still see around 540kb of net buying vs Onyx, leaving these players vulnerable to stopping out.
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Flow-wise, we have seen good trade house selling vs Onyx behind the weakness this week, taking their net long position from -660kb on 08 Dec to -2.4mb on 12 Dec.
Long-term longs out of the money in M1
New snippet
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90-day Jan'26 EBOB crack longs are now out of the money based on Flux Insight's entry-level estimates. We still see around 540kb of net buying vs Onyx, leaving these players vulnerable to stopping out.
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Flow-wise, we have seen good trade house selling vs Onyx behind the weakness this week, taking their net long position from -660kb on 08 Dec to -2.4mb on 12 Dec.
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1 month ago
Approaching critical support in ICE gasoil
The M1 ICE gasoil crack is now testing the 200-day moving average
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This long-term support level was last tested right before the 12-day war in June.
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We're comfortably in a bearish trend, and the RSI at 33 (still neutral) shows further room for downside price action. Hence, monitor this level, as a close below this level would encourage further selling.
1 month ago
US Natgas under pressure
Henry Hub saw heavy pressure yesterday after some temporary relief from a larger-than-expected EIA draw on 10 Jan
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M1 approaching $4.15/MMBtu, which was resistance through the year. The 50-day MA and the psychological $4.00/MMBtu level are close behind.
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But bearish momentum is increasing, and these levels may attract additional sell-side liquidity .
1 month ago
M1 EBOB Crack momentum remains negative
Bearish view, but watch for long-term long entry level ahead.
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Support in the M1 EBOB crack just below $13/bbl, a key support level since June 2025.
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Momentum remains negative: Prices broke below a "head and shoulders pattern" at the start of December. Moreover, trade houses sold over 520kb of the Jan'26 crack vs Onyx between 28 Nov and 05 Dec.
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Should we see further selling, keep an eye on $12.46/bbl, i.e., the average 90-day long entry-level.
1 month ago
Russian-linked fuels out of benchmark pricing
From December 15, any fuel derived from Russian crude will be excluded from Platts’ European oil price assessments
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Platts will exclude any diesel or oil product traceable to Russian crude from its European price assessments, tightening the eligible pool of supply.
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The assessment methodology stays the same, but only non‑Russian‑derived barrels can now set the benchmark.
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The change marks a rare instance of a price reporting agency reshaping the market it measures by pre‑defining which barrels “count.”
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Supported Territory
Front-month Brent tested key $60/bbl support, rebounded sharply, and now faces trendline and moving-average resistance overhead.
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December Dump
Gasoline cracks have eased from Q4 highs but remain seasonally strong, creating an opportunity to build length ahead of summer demand
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Crude prices rebounded before Christmas, but thin holiday trading, OPEC uncertainty and oversupply fears kept sentiment cautious.
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1 month ago
Brent technicals – 50 day MA still very important
The 50-day MA kept a lid on the M1 Brent futures contract on Friday, although we're back to testing this critical level this morning
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We're back to testing the critical 50-day moving average in M1 Brent futures this morning. However, a rise above this level will meet resistance at $65/bbl (also the upper Bollinger band).
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Additionally, a good indication of further bullishness will require a close above the 50-day MA or a significant rise (beyond 1 standard deviation) above this level.
1 month ago
US Weather Alert
Temperature anomaly for next week
- Cold weather focused on the mid-west with a strong western ridge keeping the West coast protected and warm!
- This same ridge may direct more moisture north and we could expect snow around the Great Lakes and Mid West.
1 month ago
Moscow-Trump talks stall on Ukraine
No breakthrough despite constructive dialogue
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Kremlin aide described talks with Trump envoys as constructive but reported no progress on resolving the Ukraine crisis, citing disagreements over territorial issues.
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Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed optimism about accelerating peace efforts, highlighting strong US commitment to diplomatic dialogue as a positive development.
1 month ago
Important support in front C3 FEI
Asian aromatics such as benzene and toluene remain soft amid ample supply, which may favour the use of propane over naphtha.
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Jan'26 C3 FEI found support around $503-$505/mt this week, aligning with the 90-day entry level for long players vs Onyx, who may be defending their positions.
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Open interest in the contract sits at 30.6mb, (5-year max at ~40mb), leaving room for fresh long risk.
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Asian aromatics such as benzene and toluene remain soft amid ample supply, which may favour the use of propane over naphtha.
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