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10 page report
Big Reserves, Big Reservations
Markets largely ignore a noisy week of oil geopolitics as Washington eyes Venezuela
Published: 8 January 2026
16 page report
Geopolitics dominated the newscycle but has been tentatively shrugged off by the market. The US government said on Wednesday it will call the shots on big decisions in Venezuela and control its oil sales indefinitely after ousting President Nicolás Maduro.
There are reservations about the reserves under Venezuela, with this clear from Trump even suggesting subsidies would be available for American companies to rebuild Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, but hesitation from these majors is evident. The physical condition of the equipment is extremely poor. It would require a substantial investment in a potentially unstable country, which is enough to put any risk team of any US oil company between Trump and his new oil. This week will bring clarity on what Trump is specifically offering these companies. Continuing his streak of unparalleled branding, the operation was a clear display of what Trump has referred to as the “Donroe Doctrine” of US dominance over its immediate region. To the North, Greenland continues to rebuff purchasing propositions, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplaying intermittent threats of military action. It’s a strange week with oil dominating headlines, but headlines not really dominating price action as Brent is grinding down towards the fifties.
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